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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to SEA 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 18 for 3 yards (31-J.Layne).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 65, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 23, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model