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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(8:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 38 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 18-F.Swain to SEA 16 for 3 yards (24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.13 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model