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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 77

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to PIT 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 26 for 14 yards (59-J.Rhattigan, 31-D.Dallas).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.05 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model