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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 14 at the 39

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP