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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 6-P.Harvin punts 45 yards to SEA 10, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.14 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP