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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 9-C.Boswell 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 9, worth +0.24 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP