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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 70

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 4-M.Dickson punts 24 yards to PIT 46, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.73 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP