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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
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DAL Home

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2021-10-10 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

NYG
40.2%
DAL
59.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.174 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.130 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.216 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) +0.168 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 24
–
DAL 28
Projected margin: DAL by 4 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

NYG

Jabrill Peppers S Out Hamstring
Sterling Shepard WR Out Hamstring
Darius Slayton WR Out Hamstring
Ben Bredeson G Out Hand
Andrew Thomas T Questionable Foot

DAL

Dorance Armstrong DE Out Ankle
Donovan Wilson S Out Groin
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Hamstring
Ezekiel Elliott RB Questionable Knee
Randy Gregory DE Questionable Knee
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Illness
Carlos Watkins DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 20
–
DAL 44

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:20 FG DAL (6:20) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 0 – DAL 3
  • Q2 12:06 TD DAL (12:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 88-C.Lamb for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – DAL 9
  • Q2 10:15 FG NYG (10:15) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 3 – DAL 10
  • Q2 02:56 TD NYG (2:56) 28-D.Booker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – DAL 10
  • Q2 00:41 TD DAL (:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 19-A.Cooper for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post. NYG 10 – DAL 16
  • Q3 11:18 FG NYG (11:18) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 13 – DAL 17
  • Q3 07:17 TD DAL (7:17) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 21-E.Elliott for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 23
  • Q3 02:05 FG DAL (2:05) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 13 – DAL 27
  • Q4 07:40 TD DAL (7:40) (Shotgun) 21-E.Elliott right end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – DAL 33
  • Q4 03:24 TD NYG (3:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left to 28-D.Booker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – DAL 34
  • Q4 01:57 FG DAL (1:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. NYG 20 – DAL 37
  • Q4 01:37 TD DAL (1:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short right intended for 15-C.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 30-A.Brown at NYG 45. 30-A.Brown for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – DAL 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 49%

    (12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Carter at NYG 48. 59-L.Carter to NYG 49 for 1 yard (21-E.Elliott).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 68%

    (10:52) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 96%

    (6:20) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to DAL 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 88-C.Lamb to NYG 49 for 17 yards (82-K.Smith).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 83%

    (3:02) (No Huddle) 1-C.Wilson right end ran ob at NYG 22 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 85
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (14:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to DAL 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (10:15) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (8:52) 5-B.Anger punts 61 yards to NYG 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-C.Board to NYG 12 for 7 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (2:56) 28-D.Booker up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 13 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 75%

    (11:18) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%

    (2:05) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (12:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 89-K.Toney.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (3:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left to 28-D.Booker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 96%

    (1:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.