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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 34

What Actually Happened

(3:24) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left to 28-D.Booker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model