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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 5-B.Anger punts 61 yards to NYG 5, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 18-C.Board to NYG 12 for 7 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP