4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 33

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.08 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model