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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to DAL 34, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 88-C.Lamb to NYG 49 for 17 yards (82-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model