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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 24 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 2-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 20, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model