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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 28

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (No Huddle) 1-C.Wilson right end ran ob at NYG 22 for 6 yards (24-J.Bradberry).

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.44 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 28, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model