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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 21-E.Elliott INTERCEPTED by 59-L.Carter at NYG 48. 59-L.Carter to NYG 49 for 1 yard (21-E.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.55 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model