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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 89-K.Toney.

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 2, worth +0.73 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model