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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 19.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

HOU
24.7%
BUF
75.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF defense: -0.244 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.114 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.136 EPA/dropback
  • BUF offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • HOU on 3 more days rest than BUF

Predicted Final Score

HOU 17
–
BUF 27
Projected margin: BUF by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

HOU

Jimmy Moreland CB Out Illness
Danny Amendola WR Out Thigh
Scottie Phillips RB Out Illness
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Terrance Mitchell CB Questionable Concussion
Garret Wallow LB Questionable Illness

BUF

Jon Feliciano G Out Concussion
Jordan Poyer S Out Ankle
Taron Johnson CB Questionable Groin
Efe Obada DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 0
–
BUF 40

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 02:06 TD BUF (2:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 88-D.Knox for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 13:09 FG BUF (13:09) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. HOU 0 – BUF 10
  • Q2 07:15 FG BUF (7:15) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. HOU 0 – BUF 13
  • Q2 00:26 FG BUF (:26) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. HOU 0 – BUF 16
  • Q3 08:49 FG BUF (8:49) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. HOU 0 – BUF 19
  • Q4 13:34 TD BUF (13:34) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BUF 25
  • Q4 10:48 TD BUF (10:48) 20-Z.Moss left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – BUF 32
  • Q4 03:42 TD BUF (3:42) 10-M.Trubisky left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Bootleg. HOU 0 – BUF 39

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:33) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-32-G.Wallow.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (10:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson (55-J.Hughes). Pass tipped at line.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:47) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to HOU 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to BUF 49 for 6 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 9-A.Smith).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 26%

    (3:59) 17-J.Allen left end pushed ob at HOU 33 for 16 yards (48-J.Thomas).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 94%

    (13:09) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 19 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to HOU 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Brooks, 43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

    (7:15) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 15 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 33 for 12 yards (24-T.Smith). Return credited to BUF 31 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 50%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs (39-T.Mitchell).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 98%

    (:26) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 96%

    (8:49) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 16 for -1 yards (24-T.Smith).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 11 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 40 for 16 yards (30-D.Jackson).