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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 16 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 2-T.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model