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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 15

Buffalo Bills 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.37 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.44 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model