Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 82

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 11-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 33 for 12 yards (24-T.Smith). Return credited to BUF 31 (spot of foul). PENALTY on BUF-33-S.Neal, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 31.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 82, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model