Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 40

(2:13) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep middle to 13-B.Cooks to HOU 40 for 16 yards (30-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP