Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 64

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 19

(5:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 16 for -1 yards (24-T.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 64, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model