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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 17-J.Allen left end pushed ob at HOU 33 for 16 yards (48-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.17 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.98 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model