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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 10 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 2-T.Bass 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.27 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP