Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 98

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-I.McKenzie to HOU 39 for 6 yards (8-T.Brooks, 43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on BUF-53-T.Dodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 39.

The Three Options

GO -4.44 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.62 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 98, worth -6.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model