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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

TB
29.5%
LA
70.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.215 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.531 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.178 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: +0.047 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • LA defense: -0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • TB defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 22
–
LA 30
Projected margin: LA by 8 Projected total: 52

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

TB

Jaydon Mickens WR Out Abdomen
Jason Pierre-Paul LB Out Hand

LA

Jacob Harris TE Questionable Hip
Darrell Henderson RB Questionable Rib

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 24
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:28 TD LA (12:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 04:07 TD TB (4:07) 14-C.Godwin right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – LA 7
  • Q2 00:54 TD LA (:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – LA 13
  • Q3 14:12 TD LA (14:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 1-D.Jackson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 7 – LA 20
  • Q3 10:06 TD TB (10:06) 12-T.Brady up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – LA 21
  • Q3 07:29 TD LA (7:29) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 14 – LA 27
  • Q3 03:14 FG LA (3:14) 8-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TB 14 – LA 31
  • Q3 01:17 FG TB (1:17) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 17 – LA 31
  • Q4 08:17 FG LA (8:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. TB 17 – LA 34
  • Q4 01:14 TD TB (1:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 25-G.Bernard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB-25-G.Bernard was injured during the play. TB 23 – LA 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-T.Atwell to LA 42 for 9 yards (43-R.Cockrell; 26-A.Adams).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 30%

    (12:19) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to LA 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-T.Atwell.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:38) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to TB 11, Center-42-M.Orzech. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 15 for 4 yards (82-J.Mundt).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%

    (5:34) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on LA-33-N.Scott, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LA 9.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 80%

    (3:14) 8-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (1:17) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (8:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 30%

    (7:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 25-G.Bernard.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 16 at the 39 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 61%

    (4:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 27 yards to TB 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 1-J.Darden. Penalty on TB-48-G.Stuard, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 32 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 76%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to LA 19 for 13 yards (22-D.Long).