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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(7:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 25-G.Bernard.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 52, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model