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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 3-R.Succop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model