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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 8-B.Pinion punts 38 yards to LA 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-T.Atwell to LA 42 for 9 yards (43-R.Cockrell; 26-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.95 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 29, worth -1.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model