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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 53 yards to LA 27, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-T.Atwell.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.28 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 80, worth -4.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 37, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP