4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 30

Los Angeles Rams 28 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 8-M.Gay 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP