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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(5:34) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to LA 9, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp. PENALTY on LA-33-N.Scott, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at LA 9.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model