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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 32

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 14-C.Godwin to LA 19 for 13 yards (22-D.Long).

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.66 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 32, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model