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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 8-M.Gay 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.89 EP