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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2021-09-26 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread 7.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CHI
13.4%
CLE
86.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CLE: Baker Mayfield (CLE) +0.354 vs Justin Fields (CHI) -0.644 EPA/dropback (CHI starting Justin Fields in place of Andy Dalton)
  • CHI offense: -0.220 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE offense: +0.198 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.186 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Wind 22 mph

Predicted Final Score

CHI 16
–
CLE 28
Projected margin: CLE by 12 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

CHI

Andy Dalton QB Out Knee
Tashaun Gipson S Doubtful Hamstring
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Knee
Marquise Goodwin WR Questionable Ankle
Akiem Hicks DT Questionable Illness
Eddie Jackson S Questionable Toe
Bilal Nichols DE Questionable Back
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Questionable Hamstring
Darnell Mooney WR Questionable Groin

CLE

Christopher Hubbard T Out Triceps
Sione Takitaki LB Out Hamstring
J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee
Jedrick Wills T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 6
–
CLE 26

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:45 FG CHI (8:45) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 12:36 FG CLE (12:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CHI 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:23 TD CLE (:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 81-A.Hooper for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – CLE 9
  • Q3 09:36 FG CLE (9:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CHI 3 – CLE 13
  • Q3 01:46 FG CHI (1:46) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – CLE 13
  • Q4 14:55 TD CLE (14:55) 27-K.Hunt right tackle for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – CLE 19
  • Q4 10:45 FG CLE (10:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CHI 6 – CLE 23
  • Q4 03:46 FG CLE (3:46) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CHI 6 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 47%

    (11:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 47 for -9 yards (sack split by 94-R.Quinn and 90-A.Blackson).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 72%

    (8:45) 2-C.Santos 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 88%

    (4:23) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 31 for -11 yards (52-K.Mack).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 14 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 15 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (12:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 19 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (10:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to CLE 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 38 for 13 yards (8-D.Williams). PENALTY on CLE-52-E.Lee, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 33.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 20 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 24%

    (5:46) 7-J.Gillan punts 34 yards to CHI 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-N.Webster MUFFS catch, touched at CHI 13, recovered by CHI-92-C.Johnson at CHI 19.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to CLE 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 21 for 11 yards (24-K.Herbert; 15-N.Webster). PENALTY on CLE-36-M.Stewart, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:12) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to CLE 33, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CHI 44 for 23 yards (92-C.Johnson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 18 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%

    (9:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 11 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for 9 yards (15-N.Webster).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:55) 7-J.Gillan punts 48 yards to CHI 27, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 15-N.Webster to CHI 31 for 4 yards (88-H.Bryant; 36-M.Stewart).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (1:46) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 29 for 14 yards (15-N.Webster).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 59%

    (10:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 88%

    (6:05) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CHI 14 for 6 yards (90-A.Blackson).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 10 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%

    (3:46) 3-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:02) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 21 for -14 yards (90-J.Clowney).