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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 78

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 24 for 9 yards (15-N.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.38 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 78, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model