4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 39

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 3-C.McLaughlin 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP