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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 4

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP