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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 20

Cleveland Browns 23 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 24-N.Chubb left guard to CHI 14 for 6 yards (90-A.Blackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.46 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model