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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 70

Chicago Bears 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to CLE 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 14 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model