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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 63

Chicago Bears 6 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to CLE 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 25-D.Felton to CLE 29 for 14 yards (15-N.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.03 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model