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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 20 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP