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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(11:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CHI 47 for -9 yards (sack split by 94-R.Quinn and 90-A.Blackson).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model