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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NE
67.1%
NYJ
32.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.175 vs Mac Jones (NE) +0.313 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: -0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Zach Wilson (NYJ) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NE 22
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

NE

Quinn Nordin K Out Abdomen
Kyle Van Noy LB Out Throat
Trenton Brown T Questionable Calf
Yodny Cajuste T Questionable Hamstring
Ronnie Perkins LB Questionable Shoulder
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Hip

NYJ

Jamien Sherwood LB Doubtful Ankle
Chuma Edoga T Questionable Illness (Non-COVID)
Keelan Cole WR Questionable Knee
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Groin
Isaiah Dunn CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 25
–
NYJ 6

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:50 FG NE (4:50) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 01:02 TD NE (1:02) (Shotgun) 28-J.White left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 09:55 FG NYJ (9:55) 6-M.Ammendola 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 10 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 00:17 FG NE (:17) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 10:38 TD NE (10:38) 37-D.Harris left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 19 – NYJ 3
  • Q3 01:13 FG NE (1:13) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 22 – NYJ 3
  • Q4 06:14 FG NYJ (6:14) 6-M.Ammendola 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. NE 22 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 02:00 FG NE (2:00) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 25 – NYJ 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 14 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 49%

    (8:35) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to NYJ 8, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 14 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 78%

    (4:50) 6-N.Folk 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (9:55) 6-M.Ammendola 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%

    (:17) 6-N.Folk 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 62%

    (4:44) 6-M.Ammendola 53 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 10 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (1:13) 6-N.Folk 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 30%

    (12:46) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 10-B.Berrios (31-J.Jones).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 20%

    (11:19) 7-J.Bailey punts 35 yards to NYJ 17, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (6:14) 6-M.Ammendola 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:18) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 74 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (4:39) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete deep left to 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 8 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 27%

    (1:06) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 16-J.Smith pushed ob at NE 45 for 35 yards (32-D.McCourty).