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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 8

New England Patriots 22 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-N.Folk 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 8, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.76 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model