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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 3

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 6-M.Ammendola 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP