Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 80

New York Jets 6 – New England Patriots 25

(1:06) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 16-J.Smith pushed ob at NE 45 for 35 yards (32-D.McCourty).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

What Happened

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.87 EP
73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -2.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP