4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 76

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to NE 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model