Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 78

New England Patriots 22 – New York Jets 6

(5:18) 7-J.Bailey punts 60 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.16 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model