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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
New York Jets
4th & 2 at the 47
New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 22
What Actually Happened
(12:46) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 10-B.Berrios (31-J.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+0.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.93 EP
- 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK
-0.86 EP
- 30% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
- 70% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT
+0.17 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth +0.17 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
